First wave 🌊.
Your questions answered — an update (11−03−2020): Professor Neil Ferguson on the current status of the COVID-19 Coronavirus outbreak, case numbers, intervention measures and challenges countries are currently facing.
Read all reports including estimates of epidemic size, transmissibility, severity, phylogenetics, undetected cases, prevalence and symptom progression here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-gida
The Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA) brings together global health researchers in the School of Public Health at Imperial College London. Drawing on Imperial’s expertise in data analytics, epidemiology and economics, J-IDEA improves our understanding of diseases and health emergencies in the most vulnerable populations across the globe. The Institute links governments, research institutions and communities to develop practical and effective long-term solutions, shape health policy and deliver better quality of life for all.
Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA)
Website: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/JIDEA
Twitter: @Imperial_JIDEA,
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MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (MRC GIDA)
Website: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-gida
Twitter: @MRC_Outbreak,
Tweets by MRC_Outbreak
Interviewee: Professor Neil Ferguson, Imperial College London, Director of J-IDEA and MRC GIDA
Interviewer and Producer: Dr Sabine van Elsland, Imperial College London, J-IDEA, MRC GIDA
Producer: Dr Katharina Hauck, Imperial College London, Deputy Director of J-IDEA, MRC GIDA
Associate Producer: Oliver Geffen Obregon, School of Public Health, Imperial College London.
Director and A Cam Operator: Tiago Melo, Digital Learning Hub
B Cam Operator: Jack Lowe, Digital Learning Hub
C Cam Operator: Erdvilas Abukevicius, Digital Learning Hub
Editor: Anne Marie Rützou Bruntse, Digital Learning Hub
Assistant editor: Tiziana Mangiaratti, Digital Learning Hub.
Dear Neil Ferguson et al,
I am a senior lecturer for MBA in the UK & China. My specialist areas are VUCA, managerial economics, statistics and I was previously at defence intelligence for NATO & SIPRI (forecasting air defence requirements team).
I have looked and studied the Imperial model, based on real life scenarios in US, Italy and Spain, this Imperial model will fail in less than 4 weeks. Secondly, the model being used in the US is failing as we speak, we will see more than a million death before the prospects of any vaccines.
My estimation is we will be talking in close to a million deaths in the UK alone with serious impact on NHS and NHS Staffs will represent a major proportion of the fatalities.
The collaterals will be -
1. No staffs (NHS/ rapid response)
2. No place on wards (beds/ physical room)
3. No ventilation ( plus other medical devices)
4. Greater public infections ( exponential)
5. Break down in UK emergency system
6. Mob rules (riots and culture of fear)
7. Collapse in government and judicial
8. Collapse in Academia and research
9. Limited protections ( two tier systems)
10. Collapse in industry and economy
Furthermore, there will be more death due to market failures of medicine and food.
Please I would like to put these points to the highest authority through your team for a National Strategy.
Sharma Guness
36 Pembury Crescent
Sidcup DA144QD
07920563589
http://linkedin.com/in/sharmaguness